杨文辉 常容若
摘 要：行政区划改革涉及府际关系的动态调整，对于政府治理有着深远的影响。本研究以撤县设区为例，采用双重差分法，运用1999年至2007年2748个县级行政区的数据，探究行政区划改革对于县级政府规模的影响。研究发现，整体而言，撤县设区改革对于政府行政管理开支和公职人员规模没有显著影响。撤县设区对于政府规模的效应存在异质性，根植于当地的政治与经济情境。具体而言，撤县设区在东部地区对政府规模产生扩张效应；在非东部地区对政府规模产生收缩效应。进一步地，撤县设区对于政府规模的效应取决于当地的发展程度，扩张效应主要存在于经济发达、人口密集、政府财政收入高、城市化率高的地区。此外，随着县级领导人任期的增加，撤县设区对于政府规模呈现收缩效应。
关键词：行政区划；撤县设区；政府规模；发展程度；官员激励
Administrative Division Reform and Government Scale: Evidence from City-County Merge
Yang Wenhui Chang Rongruo
Abstract: Administrative division reform involves the dynamic adjustment of intergovernmental relations, which has a profound impact on local governance. Taking the city-county merge reform an example, this study uses the difference-in-difference method and relies on panel data from 2,748 counties from 1999 to 2007 to explore the impact of administrative division reform on the size of county-level governments. The study found that, overall, city-county merge has no significant impact on government administrative expenditure and the size of public officials. The effect of city-county merge on government size is heterogeneous, rooted in local political and economic contexts. Specifically, city-county merge has an expansion effect on the size of the government in the eastern region; it has a contraction effect on the size of the government in the non-eastern regions. Furthermore, the effect of city-county merge on the scale of the government depends on the degree of local development. The expansion effect mainly exists in areas with developed economy, dense population, high government fiscal revenue, and high urbanization rate. In addition, with the increase of the tenure of county-level leaders, city-county merge has a shrinking effect on the size of the government.
Key words: Administrative division, City-County merge, Government size, Local development, Career incentive